Syria at the Moment

The situation on the ground in Syria is changing daily. Assad's whereabouts are disputed, the rebels are moving south taking more and more territory. The Russians are on the run too.*  For the fourth consecutive day, hundreds of individuals, including members of the Alawite, Ismaili, Yazidi, Circassian and Armenian minorities, as well as some Sunni Muslims, continued to try to leave the Aleppo region. There are persistent reports of disappearances, Local sources alleged that these disappearances were the result of targeted executions conducted by HTS, based on pre-compiled lists. 

It looks like much of the country will soon be under the control of the Sunni Islamist militants of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), their leader Abu Mohammed al-Joulani proclaims that when they've finished off the Assad regime, they will establish a government based on a people’s council, whatever that will mean for the country and its people. It is worth noting that HTS has Al-Qaeda roots and is still on the US terror list (but has been trying to gain legitimacy using for example a modified 'antiquities' policy that it feels the West will like - as reported here some months ago).

Over to the west is also the Syrian National Army (SNA): A coalition of armed rebel groups, including the Free Syrian Army, Ahrar al-Sham, and the Levant Front (it's worth noting that the Syrian free army is made up partially of Kurds).  Supported by Turkey, the SNA controls areas in northwestern Syria and has participated in recent offensives alongside HTS.

Meanwhile Assad's regime forces seem to have abandoned large areas of southern and south-central Syria (in fact part of this area is simply empty desert).

From Twitter.

The is still around Homs, 160 kms from Damascus.  At the same time, rebel groups from the south are already much closer to the capital. These more moderate rebel groups (supported by Jordan, US) are are not HTS but a mix of rebel groups, a coalition of various armed Druze tribes and Syrian opposition groups operating in southern Syria, particularly in the Daraa, Suwayda and Tanf regions. In order to take advantage of the situation, they have now (from Dec 6th 2024) formally organized into the so-called "Southern Operations Room (SOR)" who is coordinating offensives in the south, capturing cities like Daraa and advancing towards Damascus. As Jenan Moussa @jenanmoussa points out:

Traditionally, rebel groups in the south near Jordan were less influenced by extremist groups such as Nusra, HTS or ISIS. This because Jordan -contrary to Turkey- kept its borders with Syria closed and did not allow foreign fighters to sneak into Syrian opposition territories. [...] So who will reach Damascus first? Groups from the north or from the south? And are both groups coordinating operations or not? If not, will there be a stand-off possibly leading to a Libya scenario whereby the country gets carved up by different rebel groups and backers?

Apart for the humanitarian issues, what effect will that have on the protection of cultural property in the region?

*In December 2017, Putin flew to Syria with the message: "If the terrorists raise their heads again, we will strike them [from the Russian bases in Syria] in a way that they have not yet seen." Today, the Russian army is evacuating from Tartus and Khmeimim and fleeing Syria. It is difficult to over estimate what a massive strategic blow and internationally recognised humiliation this is for Russia. It is possibly their biggest total defeat since Afghanistan.