Decline and fall of the American Antiquities Market?

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Larry Elliott, Economics editor of The Guardian (Decline and fall of the American empire, Guardian 6th June 2011) raises questions about America's future:

Detroit

"the economic powerhouse of the 20th century emerged stronger from the Depression. But faced with cultural decay, structural weaknesses and reliance on finance, can the US do it again?"

This is a question not as off-topic as it might seem. The US is the largest market for the world's dugup antiquities and it is also abundantly clear that the accumulation of such items in US hands has a connection with issues of identity, entitlement and feelings of self-worth of citizens of that country. Obviously conservation is not just about "the past" but future trends. So what signs are emerging about what those trends may be? Interestingly, Elliott (a graduate from Fitzwilliam, Cambridge) sees some interesting parallels with the Roman Empire (so that will - or might not - please the coineys).

The US is a country with serious problems. Getting on for one in six depend on government food stamps to ensure they have enough to eat. The budget, which was in surplus little more than a decade ago, now has a deficit of Greek-style proportions. There is policy paralysis in Washington.

The assumption is that the problems can be easily solved because the US is the biggest economy on the planet, the only country with global military reach, the lucky possessor of the world's reserve currency, and a nation with a proud record of re-inventing itself once in every generation or so. [...]

Let me put an alternative hypothesis. America in 2011 is Rome in 200AD or Britain on the eve of the First World War: an empire at the zenith of its power but with cracks beginning to show. The experience of both Rome and Britain suggests that it is hard to stop the rot once it has set in, so here are the a few of the warning signs of trouble ahead: military overstretch, a widening gulf between rich and poor, a hollowed-out economy, citizens using debt to live beyond their means, and once-effective policies no longer working. The high levels of violent crime, epidemic of obesity, addiction to pornography and excessive use of energy may be telling us something: the US is in an advanced state of cultural decadence [...].

There has been a long-term shift of emphasis in the US economy away from manufacturing and towards finance. There is a growing challenge from producers in other parts of the world [...]. The feeble response to today's growth medicine suggests that the US is structurally far weaker than it was in the 1930s.

Stirring stuff. Will we see the bottom drop out of the antiquities market in the same way as it appears at the moment to be dropping out of the US housing market? Will the remedies which Elliot predicts America will have to find mean turning further towards models of the past, or will it encourage a vital move away from the traditions and cultural models leading to the decline? Perhaps a new seeking of a new American identity on which to build, paying less attention to the deep past and multiple roots and forging a common identity based in the soil of the continent rather than celebrating foreign values? Only time will tell, but it is worth considering whether the assumption that the global and US antiquities trade will always persist in their current form is justified. If not, then perhaps we should be trying to predict the directions of change, and whether they can be guided in a direction which is sustainable and less damaging to the world's heritage.

Photo: US Stewardship failure: Historic Building in Detroit