A Coin Dealer's Imagination of the Geography of the Ancient World: "It was The Communists Wot Dunnit"

Dave Welsh comes to the succour of his new friends, the metal detectorists (The Detectorist Connection Sunday, October 13, 2013). He suggests that metal detector users and other artefact digger are not to blame for the supply of large numbers of dugup coins to the US market:

Those involved in the ancient coin trade know from observing characteristics of the coins and the behavior of the market that the great majority of coins presently being acquired by collectors must have come from past collections, and that the flood of "new to the market" material which began to surface in the 1990s had not actually all been dug up in the last few years [...], but had instead been discovered over a period of many decades by individuals in Communist nations, who did not elect to disclose their discoveries to the authorities and then took advantage of the collapse of Communism to sell their accumulations. That flood is now a thing of the past and the ancient coin market has more or less returned to the state that prevailed prior to 1990. Prices have been rising since 2005 after years of being depressed by oversupply.

What "characteristics of the coins and the behavior of the market" is he talking about? Certainly a huge flood of dugup coins from the Balkans came onto the US and European markets after the fall of Communism in Jugoslavia and the collapse of the Zhivkov regime in Bulgaria, but these were indeed fresh dugups from sites like Archar-Rataria which certainly was being looted after 1989 and not before. So Mr Welsh is suggesting that in fifteen years, the collectors-coin market of the "communist countries" have now been emptied onto the wealthier US and western European markets? Is this not precisely what export licensing is supposed to avoid?

Here's a map of "communism" (red) and the Classical ancient world (Green) the only real overlap between the two (apart from Hungary) is in precisely those areas affected by massive ongoing looting, Bulgaria, Macedonia, the Balkans and Crimea.The features he notes would presumably equally well be explained by these coins coming onto the market due to post-1989 looting following the collapse of strong state control and the rise of criminal gangs. What ("scientific") evidence does Mr Welsh have for promoting his opposing picture? Unless one believes in Coin Fairies and Coin Elves, Occam's razor suggests that in the absence of any verifiable proof that the version Mr Welsh wants us to believe, the known instances of ongoing looting provide a simpler explanation of both the 'flood' of new coins in 1989/90-2005 and its drying up after 2005 (which is about when Bulgarian fakers started turning out their fantasy products to fill the gap in the market caused by the drying up of real dugups as the more accessible sites began to produce fewer and fewer artefacts as they were exhausted).


Now, I think we'd all like Mr Welsh and the ACCG to explain the difference in LEGAL terms between these two categories of ancient dug up coins from ancient sites in a country in eastern Europe:
(a) coins dug up under a Communist regime when the law says that finds belong to the state which are illegally held and not reported and them sold to an AGGC dealer and, 
(b) coins dug up after 1990 and illegally held and not reported and sold to an ACCG dealer like Mr Welsh? 

Note, this was Dealer Dave's reply to my earlier post: " Focus on Metal Detecting: More on "Truthiness" and Debate - Bull or Sheep? " How much truthiness is there in Dealer Dave's attempt to explain away the coins ACCG dealers sell?